A third of Wisconsin is still in drought. What does that mean for our winter?
Picture a drought, and you're likely thinking of sizzling heat, brown lawns and thirsty crops.
But droughts can linger far past summertime — in fact, more than a third of Wisconsin is still experiencing drought conditions right now.
"Winter drought is hidden," said Wisconsin state climatologist Steve Vavrus, because most people don't notice dryness outside the growing season.
So what happens during a wintertime drought? Will we get less snow? A tough spring ahead for farmers?
Here's what to know.
What is a drought?
A place is experiencing a drought when there's been a lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually a season or more, that results in a water shortage.
The National Drought Mitigation Center calls drought a "creeping phenomenon," because what first may seem like an innocuous dry spell may turn into drought if conditions persist. Its effects also vary by region — a place that normally gets lots of rain would classify as in drought sooner than a place that's almost always dry.
How has drought impacted Wisconsin this year?
In late spring, summer and early fall, Wisconsin experienced a near-historic drought. The month of May was the fourth-driest on record, according to the state climatology office, and the drought peaked in mid-September after a few weeks of unseasonably hot, dry weather.
More:Corn and soybeans suffer as forecasters expect no quick relief for farmers from Midwest drought
The week of Sept. 19, almost all of the state was feeling some level of drought conditions. Some southwest counties were classified as having "exceptional drought" by the U.S. Drought Monitor — its most intense ranking. The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources issued special fire warnings, farmers struggled to nourish their crops and low water levels even caused mussels to be stranded on the banks of the Wisconsin River.
Much of the state got rain in late September and October that proved beneficial to alleviating the drought, Vavrus said. But November was very dry — only receiving about a quarter of the precipitation that typically falls during that month, Vavrus said — meaning in some regions, drought is still lingering.
Which parts of the state are still in drought, and how bad?
According to the latest map from the U.S. Drought Monitor, which was released Thursday, about 37% of Wisconsin's total area is still experiencing some level of drought conditions. About 788,000 residents live in those areas.
That includes much of the northern third of the state, as well as a strip reaching from counties in the southwest to the tip of Door County. As of Thursday, those regions were seeing a mix of abnormally dry, moderate drought and severe drought conditions. One small region, on the border of Grant and Crawford counties, was still experiencing extreme drought.
Vavrus said this is typical after a significant drought.
"If you don't fix the drought problem during fall, before winter hits, then it tends to linger," he said.
Will that mean less snow?
Vavrus said it's unlikely that there's a relationship between how dry the soils are and how much snow will fall. But separately, it is possible that Wisconsin could experience a "snow drought," or a period of abnormally little snowpack.
Because snowpack keeps the soil warm, acting like a blanket of sorts, a lack of snow can cause the soil to cool and allow for deeper frost permeation. That can cause problems for water mains and sewer lines.
More:NOAA's 2023-2024 winter forecast is here. This is what Wisconsinites should expect.
Vavrus called the lack of snow at this time of year "really striking," and pointed out that that may not change anytime soon. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal precipitation outlook for December through February shows the possibility for below-normal chances of precipitation for the eastern half of Wisconsin (and equal chances on the western half).
If Wisconsin gets lots of snow, could it relieve the drought?
It's tempting to think that if there's a foot of snow on the ground, it'll get rid of dry soils, Vavrus said. But that's usually not the case. When snow melts, most of it runs off the landscape into streams and other bodies of water.
The winter months are also some of Wisconsin's driest, he added, because there's not much liquid content in snow. Even if the winter bears substantially more precipitation, it may be hard to break out of drought until the spring, when that precipitation falls as rain.
What would a dry winter mean for plants and crops?
Once the ground freezes, soil moisture is hard to replenish, Vavrus said — which means if Wisconsin stays dry until that happens, "we're kind of stuck" until spring.
Dry soils during winter can actually benefit agriculture come spring. Because dry soil is less compact and warms up quicker, it means farmers can get into their fields earlier and start planting. Drier soils can also encourage deeper root growth, Vavrus said, allowing the plants to tap into more moisture underground. That's why this year, farmers who planted early still saw big yields despite the extreme dryness of the summer, he said.
More:'Plant hardiness' can help map Wisconsin's changing climate. Here's how.
But it's not all good news.
"Farmers would welcome warm and dry (conditions) to get out and have things planted in a timely fashion, but they need moisture in the soil for germination and early growth," said Chris Kucharik, a plant and agrosystem sciences professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Even now, if farmers are planting cover crops to protect the soil during winter, they still need moisture for germination so the plants can establish themselves before winter, Kucharik said.
What about our lakes, rivers and streams?
Luckily, the very wet conditions that Wisconsin experienced early this year — including the fifth-wettest February on record — recharged streams, reservoirs and aquifers across the state, Vavrus said. In fact, despite the drought, 2023 wasn't too far from average in terms of precipitation, he said.
More:Heavy winter rains are happening more often in Wisconsin. Here's why we should care.
A very prolonged drought could chip away at those water levels.
What's the connection between droughts and climate change?
In general, scientists predict the changing climate will exacerbate droughts, making them more frequent, longer and more severe.
Wisconsin is likely to see more precipitation extremes, like the whiplash we saw between a wet spring and a dry summer, Vavrus said. He pointed out that the state's two recent, major droughts — this year and in 2012 — bookended Wisconsin's wettest decade on record.
We're also likely to see more flash droughts, which occur when a drought appears or intensifies rapidly, Vavrus said.
Madeline Heim is a Report for America corps reporter who writes about environmental issues in the Mississippi River watershed and across Wisconsin. Contact her at 920-996-7266 or mheim@gannett.com.
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