Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

Seth Orlemann

Staff Writer

The Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) welcome the Buffalo Bills (6-6) on Sunday. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Bills vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Buffalo lost 37-34 in overtime to the Philadelphia Eagles last week, failing to cover as a 2.5-point road underdog. QB Josh Allen went 29 of 51 for 339 yards with 2 TDs and a pick. WR Gabe Davis had 6 receptions for 105 yards and a TD while WR Stefon Diggs had 6 catches for74 yards and a TD.

Kansas City lost 27-19 to the Green Bay Packers last week while failing to cover as a 5.5-point road favorite. QB Patrick Mahomes threw for 210 yards with a TD and INT on a 21-of-33 performance. RB Isiah Pacheco carried the ball 18 times for 110 yards and a TD.

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Bills at Chiefs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:13 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bills +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Chiefs -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bills +1 (-110) | Chiefs -1 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Bills at Chiefs key injuries

Bills

CB Kaiir Elam (ankle) questionable
TE Dawson Knox (wrist) questionable

Chiefs

S Bryan Cook (ankle) out
RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) out
T Donovan Smith (neck) out
LB Drue Tranquill (concussion) out

Bills at Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 24, Chiefs 20

Moneyline

BET BILLS -+100.

The Bills are just 1-3 in their last 4 games, however, they have lost the 3 games by just 11 points combined. Losing in part to a controversial penalty last week against the Eagles, Buffalo has scored 66 total points in its last 2 games.

Kansas City will be without Pacheco, who is averaging 64.9 yards per game and has netted 48 1st downs for the KC offense. The next closest running back is RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire who averages 12.7 yards per game and has netted just 7 1st downs. The loss of Pacheco will be the key in this game resulting in the Chiefs having to rely on their passing game against a difficult Bills defense.

Against the spread

PASS.

The odds are better on the Bills' moneyline.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 48.5 (-110).

While both the Bills and Chiefs have high-powered offenses, they both have great defenses. Both Kansas City and Buffalo have hit the Over in just 2 of their last 8 games.

With Pacheco's absence, the Chiefs will not be able to find as many options to spread their offense limiting the amount of points they will be able to score.

For the Bills, Allen has thrown 13 INTs in 12 games. Any turnovers in this matchup with directly impact the total as both teams are skilled in controlling possession. While a close game can be expected, a multitude of points cannot be.

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