NOAA's 2023-2024 winter forecast is here. This is what Wisconsinites should expect.

Enjoy Wisconsin's peaking fall colors and backyard bonfires while you can because, as ever, winter is coming.

The encroaching chill also means the annual arrival of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's U.S winter outlook report courtesy of the agency's Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA said the winter of 2023-24 will probably be dominated by the effects of what could be a powerful El Niño. That means a mild, dry winter is likely on tap for much of the northern tier of the U.S., while the southeastern U.S. should see a wetter-than-average winter.

The center's forecast covers meteorological winter, which is defined as the months of December, January and February.

Here's what Wisconsinites should expect, according to a NOAA.

What's the forecast for winter?

Wisconsin could see warmer-than-average temperatures and average or below-average levels of precipitation, according to NOAA. However, the greatest odds for warmer-than-average conditions are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and northern New England.

Below-average precipitation is most likely in northern and eastern Idaho, Montana, northwestern North Dakota and Michigan, NOAA predicts. Portions of eastern Wisconsin, including the Milwaukee area, have some probability of receiving less precipitation than usual.

How will El Niño affect the winter?

The overall average snowfall during an El Niño year is about 42 inches compared to the the average of 46.3 inches across the 70-year span the National Weather Service has tracked El Niño.

There's a stark difference in snowfall totals between weak and strong El Niño years. Since 1950, weak El Niño years averaged 45.4 inches whereas all moderate or stronger El Niño years averaged 39.5 inches. This year's El Niño, which began in June, is on track to be a strong episode, NWS has said.

During an El Niño event, the ocean warms to above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It's the opposite of a La Niña, when the surface temperatures are cooler than normal. 

During late 1997 and early 1998, El Niño the winter was very warm and temperatures were six to eight degrees above average, according to the National Weather Service. Precipitation was up to two inches above average and snowfall was very close to average.

What about snowstorms and blizzards?

The NOAA winter forecast does not specify how much precipitation will fall as rain, snow or ice, only that more or less is likely overall. Snow forecasts depend upon the strength and track of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance, meteorologists say.

What does Famers Almanac predict for Wisconsin's winter?

Farmers Almanac in August predicted a "cold and stormy" winter for Wisconsin and other Midwest states. This comes after a fairly mild winter across Wisconsin, much of the Midwest and country last year. 

The almanac's mathematical and astrological formula indicates below-average temperatures and lots of snowstorms, sleet, ice and rain for much of the Great Lakes and Midwest regions this year, especially in January and February. Continued storms and cold weather with "wild swings in the thermometer" are predicted in March throughout the country.

Alex Groth, Claire Reid and Doyle Rice or USA TODAY contributed to this report.